The price of Bitcoin (BTC) increased from $vii,700 to $9,500 in merely 48 hours from Wednesday to Thursday, rising by more than 22%. The market has cooled down since, with the ascendant cryptocurrency dropping back below $9,000.

All key data points — such as spot market place data, futures volume and institutional demand — suggest that the rally from the $3,000s to the $8,000s was purely organic. It was driven by actual demand from retail investors, and possibly whales, leading up to the Bitcoin block reward halving.

Whether the rapid upsurge from $viii,000 to $nine,500 was organic or caused past spoof orders in the futures market is unclear. Co-ordinate to Skew, futures volume largely increased when Bitcoin went from $8,000 to $9,500, while it remained relatively low throughout April. Skew said:

"Futures volumes were up significantly the concluding two days on the rapid break through $8k and $9k, mirroring what occurred on the twelfth of March. Almost $40bln were crossed yesterday."

Bitcoin futures volume spikes to March 12 levels on April 29 and April 30. Source: Skew

Bitcoin futures volume spikes to March 12 levels on April 29 and April 30. Source: Skew

Market data indicates that less than ii weeks before the halving, the structure of the cryptocurrency market has shifted from being driven past futures exchanges to spot trading platforms. The good for you transition from over-leveraged trades to organic spot trades can build a strong foundation for the next Bitcoin rally.

The Bitcoin rewards halving is fix to occur in about ten days, and it will have a significant bear upon on the Bitcoin mining industry. Information technology will immediately drop the amount of Bitcoin that producers can mine past verifying blocks of transactions, decreasing the rate in which new Bitcoin is introduced to the market. The halving mechanism compliments the trend of Bitcoin as it approaches its fixed supply of 21 meg. As but 21 1000000 Bitcoin can ever be, the halving decreases the pace of its product.

But the narrative around Bitcoin's halving could be overplayed. In the previous halvings that occurred in 2022 and 2022, Bitcoin'due south price did not react significantly until ten to xi months afterwards the halvings happened. In the near-term, Bitcoin faces strong resistance levels at $9,200, $x,400 and $xi,400 at a high time frame. Information technology has crucial support in the $vii,400–$seven,600 range, and losing that could send Bitcoin back to the $5,000s.

Top trader explains the current Bitcoin price trend

Speaking to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency trader Eric Thies explained that the technicals around Bitcoin approaching the halving on May 12 are highly promising. He said:

"In ii previous halving'southward, BTC showed strength past surging to within 40% of the then ATH levels. In each of these prior events, BTC carried on upwards for over a year, and so a twelvemonth and a half, reaching ATH'southward along the way. As of correct now, BTC looks to be starting the electric current track every bit the previous halving events."

The medium-term tendency of Bitcoin is optimistic, simply Thies emphasized that retests of lower support levels and pullbacks are unavoidable in the curt-term. "These items aside, note that the recent 25% gains volition non come up without retests and pullbacks to sometime resistances, in efforts to consolidate the bullish momentum building," he added.

For Bitcoin to remain in a bullish trend in the backwash of its halving, it would have to defend the $7,100 support level and avert a downturn to the mid-$6,000 area. If information technology can remain above the $7,100 level with strength, Thies believes that $10,600 is a viable target in May. He noted:

"Assuming support holds after an initial retests of our recent gains, AND if bulls hold the current momentum they've built, we should encounter $x.6k by May, and continuation to examination the current ATH in the months thereafter."

Bullish scenario for Bitcoin

The bullish scenario for Bitcoin in the brusk- to medium-term, as explained by Thies, is quite simple. Technical indicators such as the moving boilerplate convergence/deviation, or the MACD, at loftier time frames — including weekly — signals the offset of a new upside movement. A cryptocurrency trader known as RookieXBT said:

"Not a fan of using indicators but had this pointed out to me. MACD on the weekly crossing bullish again. Interesting times going into the halving."

Bitcoin weekly chart sees start of new MACD trend. Source: RookieXBT​​​​​​​

Bitcoin weekly nautical chart sees start of new MACD trend. Source: RookieXBT

The relative force index, or RSI, of Bitcoin is hovering in the 80%–90% range. A reading of more than 75% suggests highly overbought weather condition for an asset. But given that the RSI tin can remain oversold for an extended period of fourth dimension during a proper recovery, if Bitcoin can avoid a significant pullback to the $4,000–$5,000 range, the probability of a continuation of a bullish trend remains high. Thies besides stated:

"While these resistances [$nine,200, $10,400 and $11,400] will not be easy to intermission through, this setup on the macro side of things is impressive and continues to grow with each resistance Bitcoin reclaims. Consolidation will happen and things will demand to slow and then the market stays somewhat in control. For this, the bulls must maintain approx. $7.1k, which is where several timeframes bespeak strong back up volition be most prominent."

More traders lean toward a surly scenario for Bitcoin

Following Bitcoin'southward rejection of $9,500 and its reentry to the mid-$viii,000 region, more than traders are considering the likelihood of Bitcoin seeing a local acme rather than a bullish continuation above $10,000. Cryptocurrency trader Michael van de Poppe said that while $iv,000 and $5,000 is not likely to be seen again, a salubrious retrace to the mid-$6,000 expanse is reasonable. He said:

"I don't recollect it's likely to see $four,000–5,000 levels again, especially after the halving. Nevertheless, a healthy retrace seems reasonable, which is probable due to occur later on the halving. Potential targets for these areas are a test of 200-Week MA around $6,500–7,000."

Mohit Sorout, a founding partner at Bitazu Capital, also described $nine,500 as a "logical place for $BTC to take a breather," suggesting that the intense rally of Bitcoin could lose steam in the short-term.

Bitcoin daily chart faces a strong resistance level. Source: Mohit Sorout​​​​​​​

Bitcoin daily chart faces a strong resistance level. Source: Mohit Sorout

Another trader known equally Large Chonis Trading pointed out that the strong upsurge of Bitcoin since late April led to the formation of a "TD9" on the daily chart of Bitcoin. TD9 is a sell signal in the TD Sequential system that sparks when an asset sees an overextended rally and is due for a correction. "The #bitcoin halving is in eleven days... Plenty of time for one more FOMO pump...? Hard to ignore though how yesterday'south candle closed, today opening on a TD9," the trader wrote in a Tweet.

Zoran Kole, a cryptocurrency technical analyst, stated that the $7,700–$8,000 range is the next rational area of support for Bitcoin. He noted that in the entire run upwards to $9,500, bears suffered from an overextended upside motion, and bulls demonstrated euphoria, raising the probability of information technology existence a acme. Kole said:

"I personally think the local acme is in. Little premature to call it but looks like an SFP of the nine.2 liquidity void. Bears diddled the f--- out. Bullievers euphoric. Would want to see 84xx hold for continuation otherwise 7.7-8k is the next area of interest to long."

Bitcoin rejects at a major trendline. Source: Nunya Bizniz

Bitcoin rejects at a major trendline. Source: Nunya Bizniz

The negative short-term projections for Bitcoin go in line with the surly scenario laid out by Thies, who said that a drop below $vii,000 would increase the likelihood of a deport trend resumption. Thies told Cointelegraph:

"If needed, $half dozen.8k and $6.4k lie beneath, but a move to those levels would indicate a continuation of the bear trend that has sent prices equally low as $3800 over the terminal year, later on peaking effectually $15k in July 2022."

The confluence of Bitcoin rejecting at a cardinal trendline dating back to March 12, a TD9 sell signal, the rally stopping right at the point of Bitcoin breakdown in Feb, and the tendency of Bitcoin to see "sell-the-news" sell-offs makes a post-halving correction highly probable.

But the noticeable increase in demand for Bitcoin shown by a massive rise in spot book and institutional interest may serve as a proper basis for a long-lasting rally. As such, despite the 163% price increase since $3,600, a continuation of a bullish tendency for Bitcoin cannot exist ruled out.